1st Semi Final predictions...

Now that the running order of both semi finals are known I thought I would give my comments on the draw and predict the qualifiers...... Let's start off with the 1st semi final:

1. Montenegro

Great way to open the show. Up-tempo, good catchy song. Unlucky for Montenegro to open the 1st semi final two years in a row, on the other hand I think this song is a lot stronger than last year. But they don't have enough of their neghbours voting in this semi to secure them a place in the final.

2. Czech Republic

I am not keen on this song at all. Rap, gypsy music and in parts even sounds like it could be from a musical. It's a very odd song. Although I can see that people wanting something unconvential would vote for this. Still I think they will suffer from the number two curse. Although here it's not a curse at all, it's simply a bad song.

3. Belgium

This is not a great draw for Belgium. Two gimmick-songs in a row. And the third up-tempo song in a row. Although this is miles better than Czech Republic I also think this will fall through. Had this come later in the show it might have had a slight chance of qualifying.

4. Belarus

This must be one of the least popular songs this year on the fan polls. An early draw will not give them any advantages either, in addition to that this is now the 4th up-tempo number in a row. Although the new version of the song is a lot better than what we heard in the Belarussian final I still don't think this has much of a chance.

5. Sweden

I am sure Sweden would have liked a later draw for this song, and it would have stood out more coming later in the show. Although this is now the 5th up-tempo song, this one is so radically different from the rest that I think people will take note of it. This is definitely a love it or hate it song but I think there will be enough people "loving it" to make it qualify.

6. Armenia

The worst entry from Armenia so far in my opinion, and the 6th up-tempo song of the night. In a fair world this will not qualify, but this is Eurovision... With all the Armenian immigrants throughout Europe voting for their own song I think this will come a lot higher than it deserves. High enough to qualify? Time will tell.

7. Andorra

Finally a break from the up-tempo songs. This is more like mid-tempo, and one of Andorra's best songs in the contest so far. The Catalan language sounds gorgeous, and mixed with English in the chorus I think this may have a broad appeal. But again there seems to be a curse against Andorra in Eurovision for some reason...

8. Switzerland

From mid-tempo pop to mid-tempo rock. This song is one of my personal favourites. One of the most contemporary songs in the contest this year. The downfall may be that this is too "un-Eurovision" for the audience and that it does not fit in with this format. However, I hope this will not be the case.

9. Turkey

Back to the up-tempo songs again. This is typical Eurovision ethno pop like we have heard a lot of in recent years. Not sure if this type of songs are now starting to wear out. However due to all the Turkish immigrants voting for this throughout Europe, and the popularity of these types of songs in general I think this is a definite qualifier.

10. Israel

Back to mid-tempo pop again. Beautiful harmonies, great verses that remind me of something Madonna could have sung but the weakness here is the the almost non-existent chorus which only consists of the title of the song. Due to political reasons I think Israel won't get many points from the public this year, but I have a feeling the jury may save this one.

11. Bulgaria

We are now getting more variety in the genres as we turn to up-tempo disco again. This is like hearing Jimmy Sommerville on a really bad day. Sounds ok-ish on record but the question remains, will the singer be able to pull it off live? If it is a reprise of his performance in the national final this is going to be very painful.

12. Iceland

First real ballad of the night. And who said there were many ballads this year? This will come as a relief, great draw for Iceland. One of my favourites of the night, and I think this will come across well. I don't see any reason why this will not qualify.

13. FYR Macedona

A return to another mid-tempo rock song. But this one is much less contemporary, and I can't see any broad appeal in this song. It doesn't help being sung in Macedonian either. With only Montenegro and Bosnia & Herzegovina as allies in this semi final there is not much chance of this qualifying.

14. Romania

More Eurovision ethno pop... With both Turkey and Romania in the same semi final, one may not make it, and if that is the case it will be Romania who will miss out I think. That being said there are many countries voting in this semi who usually award Romania many points so time will tell.

15. Finland

From ethno pop to 90s dance/rap.... I don't normally like songs with rap but this one is infectuous, and with such a late draw I think Finland is guaranteed a spot in the final this year. This song will have a broad appeal all over Europe.

16. Portugal

A new genre of the night. Folk music! Although not a big favourite of mine, I think this charming mid-tempo number will hit home in all of the southern and eastern European countries who are voting. Therefore a probable qualifier in my opinion.

17. Malta

A perfect draw for Malta, and only the second real ballad of the night. We all know Chiara can sing, and with the new version of this song I really feel they have brought the best out of it. Europe seems to like Chiara so I am very certain this will also qualify.

18. Bosnia & Herzegovina

These last 3 songs are such a perfect way to end the evening. This song is something in between a mid-tempo song and a ballad. The ethnic influences are strong and is also what makes this song so great. Definitely the strongest song from Balkan this year, and singing last, I would not be surprised if this wins the 1st semi final.


Predictions

Who I hope will go through:
Montenegro, Sweden, Andorra, Switzerland, Turkey, Iceland, Romania, Finland, Malta, Bosnia & Herzegovina.

Who I think will go through:
Sweden, Armenia, Switzerland, Turkey, Israel, Iceland, Finland, Portugal, Malta, Bosnia & Herzegovina.