Tuesday, 17 March 2009

Finalists predictions...

Time to give my comments on the directly qualified finalists' draw.

3. France

Even without knowing who comes before or after it doesn't seem the best draw for France. However if they get an up-tempo song drawn as number two and number 4 it might not be so bad, and they may still stand out. Having heard the French song several times already I must admit I still don't get it. It certainly is not a typical Eurovision ballad song and unfortunately that may be its downfall. Worth mentioning is Malta sang as number 3 in 2005 and still came 2nd.

Prediction: 15th to 25th place.

10. Russia

I suppose this was an earlier draw than they would have liked. But I don't think it would have mattered much for this song. Another song that I am not very fond of and I really can't see this doing very well unfortunately. Obviously there will be some points from the Baltic countries but I don't see this being top 10.

Prediction: 15th to 25th place.

17. Germany

Although this is very catchy and might have some appeal throughout Europe I don't see this either doing great. It is a quite good draw for Germany but I don't think it will make much difference. Germany has had better songs in the past and still not been able to crack the top 10....

Prediction: 11th to 20th place

23. United Kingdom

I am very optimistic about this year's British entry, and in my view is their best since 2002, and I also believe this will be reflected on the scoreboard. The draw couldn't be better. If the rumours are true that Andrew Lloyd Webber will be performing live on the piano with Jade on stage in Moscow this will bring it an extra touch of magic.

Prediction: 4th to 10th place

25. Spain

Fantastic draw for Spain. Excellent opportunity for Soraya to be singing "La Noche Es Para Mi" as the last song of the night. I don't believe this makes it a winner, but may push the song a couple of places higher up on the scoreboard than it normally would be. I believe Spain will get its best position with this song since the early 2000's.

Prediction: 6th to 10th place

2nd Semi Final predictions.....

And now time to have a look at the draw of the second semi final...

1. Croatia

Not the best way to open the second show. Maybe this ethnic Balkan ballad would have had a chance to qualify if it had come towards the end of the show. As it is now I don't think I will leave a lasting impression on the public.

2. Ireland

Of course the number two position is never good in Eurovision. On the positive note this could not be more different than Croatia's song. This is a catchy pop-rock song, and even quite contemporary. Despite the bad position I think this will have no trouble qualifying.

3. Latvia

This is in my opinion the worst song in the contest this year. Not the best draw for Latvia, that combined with a bad song, I think this will struggle to qualify even if they have all their neighbours in this semi.

4. Serbia

Bizarre choice for Serbia, and another bad song in my opinion. However I do think most if not all the Balkan countries will vote for this. As much as I hate to admit this it does have something catchy about it. Might also get the protest vote from many viewers. So for that reason a probable qualifier.

5. Poland

The second ballad of the night. Quite similar to the song that represented Poland last year, but in my opinion this song is better. Whether it will qualify or not is hard to predict. I think this is one of those that will be on the border of qualifying or not qualifying. However, I think this may be the song the juries might save.

6. Norway

Lucky for Norway they seem to be the big fan favourite this year, and I would be very surprised if this did not qualify. Despite not having the best position I think this will stand out, as it comes between two ballads, and is not close to any of the other big favourites of the night. Definite qualifier.

7. Cyprus

I think this will come across as a bit of anti-climax coming right after Norway, however at the same time it might be refreshing with a change of song style too. In the national final this did not come across very well on stage as the singer was very much out of tune. However, if she is able to master the song on the night this could actually qualify. There will no doubt be 12 points from Greece!

8. Slovakia

This is another song that I don't think highly of. After 11 years away from the contest it's a shame they have such a bad song, and their draw is not the best one coming between two mid-tempo songs. I fear all the screaming that is done in this song will put people off.

9. Denmark

In my opinion this is the best song we have heard from Denmark in a long time. This sounds very much like Ronan Keating (who even co-wrote it), and whether that is an advantage or disadvantage remains to be seen. I think this type of music may be more popular in the west than in the east, and therefore may struggle to qualify. Just my gut feeling.

10. Slovenia

Another big change in style. It might actually be refreshing with an almost instrumental song in the contest, certainly standing out from the rest. I was not keen on this song when I first heard it but it has grown on me. There is something classically Eurovision about this one. I think they may just make it with almost all their neighbours voting.

11. Hungary

A piece of disco in this semi final too, and even in the same spot... Decent song, again another refreshing change in style. Think also this song has a fair good chance of making it to the final although not a favourite of mine.

12. Azerbaijan

One of the big favourites in this semi final. This is a guaranteed finalist in my view. Catchy ethno pop/dance song. Along with Norway I can see this fighting in top of the scoreboard on the final night.

13. Greece

Another big favourite. Unfortunate for Greece coming straight after one of its biggest and most dangerous competitors, in addition to the songs being quite similar in style. However, I don't think it will matter too much, and Greece will easily qualify in my view. Remember, this also happened to Iceland and Sweden last year, and they both made it.

14. Lithuania

Time for a ballad again. Although a decent enough song I don't think it will have a great impact. But then again they do have just about all their neighbours in this semi, so anything is possible. For me this song is a bit dull even coming after 3 dance songs...

15. Moldova

Back to more ethnic music again... I'm afraid I don't quite get this song but I can easily this getting a lot of points as Europe seems to love this type of music. With a good stage show and good vocals I think this is another probable qualifier. Also they will benefit from the late draw.

16. Albania

At first I was not very keen on this song, and the Albanian language comes across as a bit odd in my opinion. However, the song will now be translated to English and also edited and remixed for Eurovision. This should only improve the song, and with such a late draw, I can easily see this also making it to the final.

17. Ukraine

Not at all impressed with Ukraine this year, in fact one of the songs I like the least in the competition. Very cheap and tacky dance song. However, I do fear that the eastern countries and especially the baltic countries may buy into this no matter how cringe-worthy it is, and for that reason alone another probable qualifier.

18. Estonia

Finally another song with some class. Despite being sung in Estonian I think this will come across really well after Ukraine, Albania and Moldova. I think we finally see Estonia in the final again, the first time since 2003!

19. Netherlands

The show ends with the cheesiest of all Eurovision songs this year. I do think Europe will see through the overly camp production and clichéed lyrics. Despite performing last I still cannot see this qualifying.

Predictions

Who I hope will go through:
Ireland, Poland, Norway, Denmark, Slovenia, Hungary, Azerbaijan, Greece, Albania, Estonia.

Who I think will go through:
Ireland, Poland, Norway, Slovenia, Hungary, Azerbaijan, Greece, Albania, Ukraine, Estonia.

1st Semi Final predictions...

Now that the running order of both semi finals are known I thought I would give my comments on the draw and predict the qualifiers...... Let's start off with the 1st semi final:

1. Montenegro

Great way to open the show. Up-tempo, good catchy song. Unlucky for Montenegro to open the 1st semi final two years in a row, on the other hand I think this song is a lot stronger than last year. But they don't have enough of their neghbours voting in this semi to secure them a place in the final.

2. Czech Republic

I am not keen on this song at all. Rap, gypsy music and in parts even sounds like it could be from a musical. It's a very odd song. Although I can see that people wanting something unconvential would vote for this. Still I think they will suffer from the number two curse. Although here it's not a curse at all, it's simply a bad song.

3. Belgium

This is not a great draw for Belgium. Two gimmick-songs in a row. And the third up-tempo song in a row. Although this is miles better than Czech Republic I also think this will fall through. Had this come later in the show it might have had a slight chance of qualifying.

4. Belarus

This must be one of the least popular songs this year on the fan polls. An early draw will not give them any advantages either, in addition to that this is now the 4th up-tempo number in a row. Although the new version of the song is a lot better than what we heard in the Belarussian final I still don't think this has much of a chance.

5. Sweden

I am sure Sweden would have liked a later draw for this song, and it would have stood out more coming later in the show. Although this is now the 5th up-tempo song, this one is so radically different from the rest that I think people will take note of it. This is definitely a love it or hate it song but I think there will be enough people "loving it" to make it qualify.

6. Armenia

The worst entry from Armenia so far in my opinion, and the 6th up-tempo song of the night. In a fair world this will not qualify, but this is Eurovision... With all the Armenian immigrants throughout Europe voting for their own song I think this will come a lot higher than it deserves. High enough to qualify? Time will tell.

7. Andorra

Finally a break from the up-tempo songs. This is more like mid-tempo, and one of Andorra's best songs in the contest so far. The Catalan language sounds gorgeous, and mixed with English in the chorus I think this may have a broad appeal. But again there seems to be a curse against Andorra in Eurovision for some reason...

8. Switzerland

From mid-tempo pop to mid-tempo rock. This song is one of my personal favourites. One of the most contemporary songs in the contest this year. The downfall may be that this is too "un-Eurovision" for the audience and that it does not fit in with this format. However, I hope this will not be the case.

9. Turkey

Back to the up-tempo songs again. This is typical Eurovision ethno pop like we have heard a lot of in recent years. Not sure if this type of songs are now starting to wear out. However due to all the Turkish immigrants voting for this throughout Europe, and the popularity of these types of songs in general I think this is a definite qualifier.

10. Israel

Back to mid-tempo pop again. Beautiful harmonies, great verses that remind me of something Madonna could have sung but the weakness here is the the almost non-existent chorus which only consists of the title of the song. Due to political reasons I think Israel won't get many points from the public this year, but I have a feeling the jury may save this one.

11. Bulgaria

We are now getting more variety in the genres as we turn to up-tempo disco again. This is like hearing Jimmy Sommerville on a really bad day. Sounds ok-ish on record but the question remains, will the singer be able to pull it off live? If it is a reprise of his performance in the national final this is going to be very painful.

12. Iceland

First real ballad of the night. And who said there were many ballads this year? This will come as a relief, great draw for Iceland. One of my favourites of the night, and I think this will come across well. I don't see any reason why this will not qualify.

13. FYR Macedona

A return to another mid-tempo rock song. But this one is much less contemporary, and I can't see any broad appeal in this song. It doesn't help being sung in Macedonian either. With only Montenegro and Bosnia & Herzegovina as allies in this semi final there is not much chance of this qualifying.

14. Romania

More Eurovision ethno pop... With both Turkey and Romania in the same semi final, one may not make it, and if that is the case it will be Romania who will miss out I think. That being said there are many countries voting in this semi who usually award Romania many points so time will tell.

15. Finland

From ethno pop to 90s dance/rap.... I don't normally like songs with rap but this one is infectuous, and with such a late draw I think Finland is guaranteed a spot in the final this year. This song will have a broad appeal all over Europe.

16. Portugal

A new genre of the night. Folk music! Although not a big favourite of mine, I think this charming mid-tempo number will hit home in all of the southern and eastern European countries who are voting. Therefore a probable qualifier in my opinion.

17. Malta

A perfect draw for Malta, and only the second real ballad of the night. We all know Chiara can sing, and with the new version of this song I really feel they have brought the best out of it. Europe seems to like Chiara so I am very certain this will also qualify.

18. Bosnia & Herzegovina

These last 3 songs are such a perfect way to end the evening. This song is something in between a mid-tempo song and a ballad. The ethnic influences are strong and is also what makes this song so great. Definitely the strongest song from Balkan this year, and singing last, I would not be surprised if this wins the 1st semi final.


Predictions

Who I hope will go through:
Montenegro, Sweden, Andorra, Switzerland, Turkey, Iceland, Romania, Finland, Malta, Bosnia & Herzegovina.

Who I think will go through:
Sweden, Armenia, Switzerland, Turkey, Israel, Iceland, Finland, Portugal, Malta, Bosnia & Herzegovina.

Monday, 16 March 2009

Running order drawn!


This afternoon live from Moscow the running order was drawn for both semi finals and the directly qualified countries in the final. The event was hosted by Yana Churikova, who also hosted the allocation draw determining which semi final the various countries would compete in, she also co-hosted the national Russian final this year. With her on stage was last year's winner Dima Bilan, who actually performed the physical draw. During the almost 1 hour long event we got the following result:

1st semi final (to be held 12th May)

1. Montenegro
2. Czech Republic
3. Belgium
4. Belarus
5. Sweden
6. Armenia
7. Andorra
8. Switzerland
9. Turkey
10. Israel
11. Bulgaria
12. Iceland
13. FYR Macedonia
14. Romania
15. Finland
16. Portugal
17. Malta
18. Bosnia & Herzegovina

2nd semi final (to be held 14th May):

1. Croatia
2. Ireland
3. Latvia
4. Serbia
5. Poland
6. Norway
7. Cyprus
8. Slovakia
9. Denmark
10. Slovenia
11. Hungary
12. Azerbaijan
13. Greece
14. Lithuania
15. Moldova
16. Albania
17. Ukraine
18. Estonia
19. Netherlands

Final (to be held 16th May)

1.
2.
3. France
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10. Russia
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17. Germany
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23. United Kingdom
24.
25. Spain

I will comment on this draw and give my predictions on the qualifiers soon.

Saturday, 14 March 2009

And the very last country to decide is.....


CZECH REPUBLIC!!! For two weeks people in Czech Republic have been able to vote in an online poll for two songs, "Aven Romale" and "Do You Wanna", the smallest selection in this year's national finals in Europe. Czech Republic debuted in the contest in 2007 and has so far failed at qualifying to the grand final both in 2007 and 2008. At midnight the poll closed and this time they went for...

ARTIST: Gipsy.cz
SONG: Aven Romale

In my opinion Czech Republic had an almost impossible task ahead of them, picking one song out of two dreadful song choices. It came down to choosing the lesser of two evils. The song is part rap, part gypsy music (hence the name). The result is very messy indeed. However the frightening thing with this song is that it is so bad that it almost becomes good. I fear this could become quite infectuous on stage in Moscow and score quite a few points. However, it could not strand further away from my personal taste in music.

Czech Republic will take part in semi final 1 on 12th May.

VERDICT: 2 out of 10



Sweden has made their choice


Tonight the last national final was held in Europe, and Sweden finally chose their Eurovision entry after 4 semi finals and a second chance round. Sweden is indeed one of the big Eurovision nations with 4 wins (1974, 1984, 1991 and 1999), in addition to numerous top 5 and top 10 positions through the years. Unfortunately they haven't done too well the last couple of years, failing to reach the top 15 in the final two years in a row. On the other hand, worth mentioning is that Sweden has never failed to qualify to the grand final. This year Sweden went for...

ARTIST: Malena Ernman
SONG: La Voix

The race was extremely close after the 12 juries had cast their votes, but the televote turned it all around making "La Voix" the winner despite the lack of big points from most of the juries. Sweden has this year chosen a song that will stand out in Moscow. There is nothing like it in the contest this year, and that I believe will be an advantage for them. The song itself is a mixture of pop/dance and classical/opera. The chorus obviously borrows from "Nessun Dorma" made popular to the public by singers like Luciano Pavarotti. If it is enough for it to be accused of plagiarism remains to be seen, personally I doubt this will happen. The song has a catchy groove, because of its dancey and classical touch may appeal to both lovers of modern pop/dance and classical/opera. I think this will easily qualify to the final in Moscow, however I do not think this is top 5. In my opinion a quite good song, enough to stand out, but personally I am not very keen on the singer.

Sweden will participate in the first semi final on 12th May.

VERDICT: 7 out of 10



Wednesday, 11 March 2009

Georgia has withdrawn


Earlier today it became known that Georgia has decided to withdraw from the contest. Yesterday it was revealed that EBU would disqualify the Georgian entry unless they changed the lyrics of the song (due to the clearly political submeaning) or choose a new song altogether before the 16th March deadline. Obviously under pressure from Russia, Georgia has now decided to withdraw. For reference, this is what the EBU rule says:

4.9 The lyrics and/or performance of the songs shall not bring the Shows or the Eurovision Song Contest as such into disrepute. No lyrics, speeches, gestures of a political or similar nature shall be permitted during the Eurovision Song Contest. No swearing or other unacceptable language shall be allowed in the lyrics or in the performances of the songs. No commercial messages of any kind shall be allowed. A breach of this rule may result in disqualification.

Personally, I think it's a shame they are withdrawing, would have been nice to have them in the contest with at least an altered version of the song or a new song... But at the same time I can understand their decision. Now they still have their pride in tact and deserve the respect for not amending to EBU's rules. I really believe in freedom of speech. We have that in music released elsewhere (artists expressing their stand musically/lyrically) so why is it banned to have an opinion on something in Eurovision? I mean, if you don't like it you don't have to vote for it. To quote a message left in the forum of the website http://www.esctoday.com/: "In the name of keeping politics out of the contest, the EBU has actually allowed politics into the contest by allowing politics to affect their decision." I think that says it all.

With respect to the Georgian entry, let us one more time enjoy their entry, "We Don't Wanna Put In" by Stephanie & 3G.